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制造業延續擴張經濟企穩態勢顯現
2020-01-06 22:32  www.phpfang.com

  1月2日公布的2019年12月財新中國制造業采購經理人指數(PMI)為,繼續處于榮枯線上方,新訂單指數和生產指數均連續六個月處于擴張區間。此前一日國家統計局公布的官方制造業PMI為%,顯示制造業延續擴張態勢,市場需求繼續增長,生產擴張持續加快。業內指出,先行指標顯示,無論從總體看還是從中小企業看,制造業均延續擴張態勢,經濟回暖趨勢更為顯著。

  12月官方制造業PMI為%,連續兩個月位于榮枯線以上。制造業景氣穩中有升。國家統計局服務業調查中心高級統計師趙慶河指出,生產繼續加快,需求保持擴張。制造業供需兩端較為活躍。生產指數為%,比上月上升個百分點。在調查的21個行業中,15個行業生產指數位于擴張區間。新訂單指數為%,連續兩個月高于臨界點。為滿足生產需要,企業采購意愿增強,采購量指數為%,環比上升個百分點。

The official manufacturing PMI was% in December and has been above the line for two consecutive months. The manufacturing boom has risen steadily. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that production continued to accelerate and demand continued to expand. manufacturing supply and demand are more active at both ends. The production index was%, up a percentage point from last month. Of the 21 sectors surveyed,15 were in the expansion range. The new order index is%, which is higher than the critical point for two consecutive months. In order to meet the production needs, the enterprise purchase willingness is enhanced, the purchase quantity index is%, the month-on-month increase is one percentage point.

  此外,進出口狀況改善,國外訂單明顯增長,原材料進口繼續回暖。新出口訂單指數為%,高于上月個百分點,自2018年6月以來首次升至擴張區間;進口指數為%,環比上升個百分點,連續兩個月回升。供需狀況也有所改善,主要原材料購進價格指數和出廠價格指數雙雙回升。

In addition, the import and export situation improved, foreign orders increased significantly, and raw material imports continued to warm up. The new export order index was%, up from last month's percentage point, rising to the expansion range for the first time since June 2018; the import index was%, up a percentage point from a two-month period. Supply and demand also improved, with the main raw material purchase price index and the ex-factory price index both picking up.

  趙慶河還表示,轉型升級持續推進,新興產業增勢良好。高技術制造業、裝備制造業和消費品行業PMI為%、%和%,分別高于制造業總體、和個百分點,連續3個月位于擴張區間,且景氣水平連續上升。

Zhao Qinghe also said that the transformation and upgrading continued to advance, the growth of emerging industries is good. In high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, the PMI was%,% and%, respectively, higher than the manufacturing sector as a whole, and a percentage point.

  主要針對中小企業的財新PMI也顯示出積極變化。財新智庫莫尼塔研究董事長兼首席經濟學家鐘正生表示,新訂單指數已連續六個月處于擴張區間。廠商普遍表示,這與客戶數量增加、需求改善和新產品問世有關。由于新接業務增加,生產擴張仍較快。企業信心也出現積極變化,12月未來產出指數小幅反彈。新產品創新、資本投資與公司擴張計劃,支撐了業界的增長預期。

The new PMI, mainly for small and medium-sized enterprises, also showed positive changes. Chung zhengsheng, chairman and chief economist of moneta research at caixin think tank, said the new order index had been in the expansion range for six months in a row. Manufacturers generally say it has to do with increased customer numbers, improved demand and new products. production expansion is still relatively fast due to the increase of new connection business. There have also been positive changes in business confidence, with the future output index rebounding slightly in December. New product innovation, capital investment and corporate expansion plans underpin industry growth expectations.

  不少機構繼續看好制造業和經濟走勢。“生產指數進一步改善、新訂單維持高位,反映出投資穩定、消費需求有所改善、外部環境不確定性緩解、去庫存過程趨緩共同對企業信心形成支撐。”申萬宏源宏觀高級分析師秦泰指出。

Many institutions continue to be bullish on manufacturing and economic trends. \"The further improvement in the production index and the high level of new orders reflect the stability of investment, improved consumer demand, the mitigation of external environmental uncertainty and the slowing of the destocking process together to support business confidence.\" Shen Wan Hongyuan macro senior analyst Qin Tai points out.

  “生產、需求指標同時出現較好表現,邊際加強了當前經濟短周期企穩回升的傾向。”中信建投宏觀固收首席分析師黃文濤認為。

“Production and demand indicators are performing well at the same time, and the margin reinforces the current tendency for the economy to stabilize and pick up in short periods." Huang wentao, chief analyst at citic jiansu macro.

  華泰宏觀首席宏觀研究員李超也認為,11月、12月PMI連續走強,經濟企穩信號已現,隨著逆周期政策進一步發力,2020年一季度經濟回暖可期。

Huatai macro chief macro researcher Li Chao agreed that November, December PMI continued to strengthen, the economic stability signal has emerged, as the counter-cyclical policy further efforts, the first quarter of 2020 economic recovery can be expected.